As a follow up to our oil outlook session in January, we aim to explore and take a deeper dive into the top risks to the oil and natural gas markets in 2024. Some of these risks are likely to include: (1) a continuation and even deepening of trade route distortions impacted by geopolitics (Suez Canal/Red Sea) – or the end of these distortions, as well as distortions related to climate change (Panama Canal); (2) the new China, its "real" level of growth and its inventory policies impacting imports of crude oil and exports of petroleum products; (3) Russia’s situation in global oil and gas markets and an evaluation of how the world adjusted to market distortions resulting from Western sanctions on Russia including on trade, financial controls and price caps; (4) Iran’s situation in regional politics and global markets, along with politically induced changes in the supply outlook for the remaining “Fragile Five” countries – Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela; and (5) new trade patterns coming from developments like the trans-Canada oil pipeline's 600 thousand barrels per day increase in pipeline capacity to the Pacific (along with an expansion of production and exports to the Pacific), with less Canadian crude entering PADDS II and III and much more entering the Pacific arena, including into PADD V, the opening of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and other market factors.

Ed Morse, Chair of the New York Energy Forum advisory board, will moderate a discussion with our panel of experts to explore these issues and the implications for the oil market.

This event will be a virtual session via Zoom from 12:00 PM until 1:30 PM EST. Additional details will be provided to registered attendees prior to the session.

SPEAKERS

Bruce Fulin

Bruce Fulin is Argus Media’s Vice President of Crude Oil Business Development. Bruce has over 20 years of experience in the oil and gas industries focusing on commercial trading, planning and development, coordination of multiple teams, decision-making, economic valuation, consensus-building, and communication skills. Bruce has previously worked with PetroChina, BG Group, Equiva Trading (Shell), ConocoPhillips, and Premcor Oil in crude- related roles. Bruce has an MBA from the University of Moscow and a BBA in management from the University of Houston.

Scott Modell

Scott Modell is CEO of the Rapidan Energy Group, a leading Washington, DC-based consultancy specialized in energy markets, policy and geopolitics. Scott joined Rapidan in 2014 to deepen the company's coverage of geopolitical risk to oil markets in countries such as Iran, Venezuela, and Libya after serving for 13 years in the CIA's Directorate of Operations. His time at the CIA spanned five tours covering Latin America, Western Europe, and the Middle East. He participated in post 9-11 operations in southeastern Afghanistan as a member of paramilitary counter terrorism teams composed of CIA officers and local Afghan forces. He also served as the Chief of Station for field CIA operations inside Iran. Scott was also a non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an advisor to the U.S. Special Operations Command on Counter Threat Finance operations. He is currently on the adjunct faculty at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Scott earned his B.A. in International Relations from UCLA and his M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University!s School of Foreign Service.

Elina Ribakova

Elina Ribakova has been a frequent commentator on various aspects of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, including the efficacy of trade and financial sanctions and their impacts on Russia and the Russian oil and gas industry and on Russian imports. Her recent op-eds have focused on the oil price cap and how to fix its defects, and Russia!s reliance on Western equipment. She is non- resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics since April 2023. She is also a nonresident fellow at Bruegel and a director of the International Affairs Program and vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics. Her research focuses on global markets, economic statecraft, and economic sovereignty. She has been a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for New American Security (2020–23) and a research fellow at the London School of Economics (2015–17). Ribakova has over 25 years of experience in financial markets and research. She has held several senior level roles, including deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance in Washington, managing director and head of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Research at Deutsche Bank in London, leadership positions at Amundi (Pioneer) Asset Management, and director and chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth for Independent States (CIS) at Citigroup. She holds a BSc in Economics and Business Administration from the Stockholm School of Economics, an M.S. in economics from the University of Warwick and an M.S in data science from the University of Virginia.

MODERATOR

Ed Morse

Edward Morse Chairs the Energy Forum Advisory Board and is Special Advisor at Hartree Partners. Previously, he was Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. He held similar positions at Lehman and Credit Suisse, taught at Princeton, Columbia and Johns Hopkins Universities, worked at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Policy, and in management at Phillips Petroleum. A co-founder of PFC Energy, a former publisher at Energy Intelligence, he also worked at Hess Energy Trading. As a consultant he helped design Yemen's oil pricing policy and assisted the UN Security Council on the design and negotiation of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food Program. He writes op-eds for the FT, NY Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post and often comments at Bloomberg TV and CNBC. He has been a Senior Fellow of both the USAEE and the IEEJ and was named by Petroleum Economist as among the ten most prominent individuals in energy finance.

PROGRAM

12:00 PM - 1:30 PM: Presentation and Discussion

COST

This session is complimentary for all registrants. Registration is required for event link details.