A Quarter into the new Millennium and oil prices still matter much more than maybe they should. They also remain unforecastable to most of us. So once again. please join us for a lively discussion with a great line-up of actual experts. The list of issues and points of debate is long. Here are some highlights:
1) The usual supply and demand factors – except that they are still trickier this year - Will China’s oil demand return to growth? Can other EM economies drive global demand to a similar degree as China? How much trend-decline of oil demand is there in European and mature Asian economies? and will oil demand in America grow through another cyclical upturn, or is it done too? From the supply side, will growth from the biggest producer decelerate (as business models suggest); or accelerate as the America’s new President wants? Will Russia continue to decline? Will Iran manage to sustain production? Will OPEC continue to cede share?
At the end of the day, will a Trump presidency simply create greater uncertainty and volatility in markets? Will it be bullish or bearish for energy prices in the US and globally? Or will it just point to greater volatility.
2) Broader geopolitical issues - As the hot war in the Middle East continues to spread, will that matter for oil supply? The hot war in Europe matters for natural gas, coal and to some degree oil, will it end? As friction between the US centric, established global order and an ascendant China continues to increase, will that dramatically raise or deflate oil demand this year?
3) Market and liquidity factors - Who’s trading more (or less)? What about liquidity and volatility? Or, which way will the US dollar and global rates push oil prices?
We cannot promise you a foolproof forecast, but will promise you uniquely valuable insights and entertaining debate.
The first part of our program will be held in memory of Larry Goldstein (1942 - 2024) to honor his remarkable career and contributions to the energy community. The program is made possible through the generous support of Dr. Gary Ross.
This session will be in person in New York. Advance registration is required.
We also ask you to participate in our annual price-outlook survey. Please submit your price estimates here. See link for our 2024 survey results.
SPEAKERS
Gary Ross
Gary Ross is Founder of PIRA, an international energy consulting firm retained by some 550 companies/governments in more than sixty countries around the world which was formed in 1976 and acquired by S&P Global in 2016. Dr. Ross spent roughly two years at S&P Global Platts as Head of Global Oil Analytics and Chief Energy Economist and is currently the CEO of Black Gold Investors LLC, a family investment company. Dr. Ross is a leading authority on worldwide energy markets. He led PIRA from its inception, building it into one of the most important firms in energy market analysis. He was responsible for short- and long-term oil market forecasts, overseeing all of the group’s published research. He is renowned for his accurate projections of major oil market price moves. He advised many governments on energy markets and energy policy issues, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Dr. Ross holds a Ph.D. in economics from the City University of New York.
Michelle Brouhard
Michelle Brouhard is an oil trader at Hartree Partners. Her investing expertise focuses on commodities such as oil, natural gas, metals and agriculture. She also has experience in investing in equities, FX and credit, based on a commodity point of view. Before Hartree, Michelle traded oil and other commodities with TrailStone Group (2016 – 2018); earlier, Michelle was a Portfolio Manager with PointState Capital, where she capitalized on the oil price crash of 2014.
Michelle has been named to the Hedge Fund Journal / Ernst & Young’s “50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds” for 2019. She also serves on the board of Hope for New York, is the co-founder of Refugee Action Fund and is on the National Leadership Council for World Vision. She is also a children’s leader at Bible Study Fellowship.
Michelle has a degree in Marketing and International studies from Kansas State University. In her spare time she participates in adventure races and marathons including a 250 km ultra marathon through Iceland and rim to rim hiking through the Grand Canyon.
MODERATOR
Jan Stuart
Johannes (Jan) Stuart is a Global Energy Strategist and MD in Equities Research at Piper Sandler. A self-described energy-geek and student of War, Stuart and his team take a micro-fundamentals approach to the analysis and forecasting of the whole spectrum of energy. They don’t usually side with consensus. Before joining Piper Sandler in 2017, Jan spent another 12 years in sell-side research building leading energy-macro franchises at Credit Suisse, Macquarie, UBS; and as a desk analyst at ABN-Amro. He was a journalist for much of the 1990s and started his career at the International Energy Agency in Paris. Mr. Stuart earned a BA in International Affairs from the American University in Paris; an MA in the same field from Boston University; and an MSc in Journalism from Columbia University in New York.
PROGRAM
5:00 - 5:30 PM: Registration
5:30 - 6:00 PM: Memorial for Larry Goldstein
6:00 - 7:30 PM: Oil Price Outlook Presentation and Discussion
7:30 - 8:00 PM: Reception
COST
Registration is required for all attendees. An admission fee is required for in-person attendees as listed below:
$40.00 for General Admission
$10.00 for Academic/Military
$0.00 for Energy Forum Sponsors
$0.00 for Paid Subscribers
QUESTIONS
We would be pleased to answer any questions you might have about The Energy Forum, Inc. or about this session. For updates, follow us on twitter @NYEnergyForum