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OPEC+ has not only fully returned to market the 2.2 million barrels per day of nominal voluntary supply cuts eight countries within the group made in 2022, it has also committed to a first monthly return of 1.65 million barrels per day committed before then. The market has been absorbing the higher supply with a few bearish impacts. This has been for two essential reasons: 1. refinery margins are robust and crude stocks are relatively low globally, so the added crude has not had significantly bearish consequences to date; and 2. summer oil burn for power generation in the Middle East is more than one million barrels per day above Spring levels. But, the summer power generation season will be over after September, as global refinery demand for crude also falls during Autumn season.

How will the market move? How might OPEC+ members respond, either individually or as a group when they meet in early October to decide production starting on November 1? Now that OPEC+ has reduced historical cuts for both September and October, questions are being raised about what the producers might do to put a floor under prices, especially if prices fall below $50/bbl (Brent).